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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across parts of
central Texas this afternoon.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate over the western CONUS
for today with a broad, weak troughing over the OH and lower MS
river valleys. Weak perturbations are noted in recent water-vapor
imagery within the synoptic trough, and will meander northeastward
across the southern/central Appalachians into the Northeast, helping
focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon. While pockets of
enhanced mid-level flow are likely across this region, poor
mid-level lapse rates (sampled by 00 UTC RAOBs) will likely limit
storm intensity. A few strong to severe gusts are possible across
the Four Corners and central California this afternoon where
low-level lapse rates are expected to be fairly steep amid strong
diurnal heating. CAM consensus on convective coverage remains very
poor given weak/localized forcing for ascent. As such, confidence in
a sufficiently widespread severe risk remains too limited to
introduce risk probabilities.

...Central Texas...
Relatively higher probability of strong/severe winds will reside
across central TX. Thunderstorm development along a diffuse frontal
boundary is likely by the late afternoon hours. Steeper lapse rates
aloft coupled with seasonal boundary-layer moisture will support
around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. This favorable buoyancy co*bined with
steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong to severe
outflow winds. Relatively weak flow aloft will limit storm
organization, but coalescing outflows from thunderstorm clustering
may bolster the potential for strong/severe gusts.

..Moore/Jewell.. 09/05/2022