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Mesoscale Discussion 1765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Areas affected...Lower Colorado River Valley into southern
California

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042140Z - 042345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will beco*e more
likely through the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms
may be strong to severe with the potential for strong winds. A watch
is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...A few attempts at convective initiation have been noted
over northern Yavapai, southern Coconino, and eastern Mohave
counties over the past 1-2 hours. These early attempts have largely
failed due to lingering inhibition and weak forcing for ascent, but
increasing cumulus across the region over the past 30 minutes or so
suggests a continued decrease in inhibition and strengthening
orographic lift over the terrain. A few deeper towers with 30-40 dBz
radar returns have been noted in the past 15 minutes, suggesting
that sustained thunderstorm initiation is beco*ing more likely
within the next hour. Storms that can mature through the late
afternoon and early evening hours will likely acquire some
storm-scale organization given adequate buoyancy and modest
deep-layer shear. While sporadic marginally severe hail is possible,
strong to severe winds appear to be the most likely hazard given
high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates near 9 C/km.
Further west into southern CA, isolated thunderstorms are struggling
to mature in a similar thermodynamic regime, but may undergo some
intensification over the next 1-2 hours. This activity will
similarly pose a strong/severe wind threat into the evening hours.
Given the localized/weak forcing for ascent, storm coverage will
most likely remain too limited for watch issuance.

..Moore/Hart.. 09/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

LAT...LON   35281247 34251264 34041461 34111700 34231831 34761877
            35271876 35601829 35901604 36421417 36331299 35281247