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Mesoscale Discussion 1764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of north/central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042045Z - 042245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe gusts and hail may persist
through late afternoon with a southward-moving storm cluster.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster has intensified over the last hour in
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex vicinity. Observed wind gusts of
45-65 mph have thus far been noted, along with multiple reports of
1-inch hail. Individual cells within the cluster have tended to be
relatively short-lived, likely due to weak deep-layer shear, but
strong updrafts will likely continue to redevelop along the
well-defined outflow as it moves southward through the remainder of
the afternoon. Isolated severe gusts will continue to be possible as
the cluster moves through a steep low-level lapse rate environment,
especially where collapsing cells locally augment winds associated
with the larger-scale outflow. Moderate instability (MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg) will also continue to support an isolated hail
threat as renewed development pulses up in intensity. 

Given the weak deep-layer shear and relatively disorganized nature
of the ongoing cluster, watch issuance is still considered unlikely,
but this will be reconsidered if observational trends support a more
widespread severe-wind risk.

..Dean/Guyer.. 09/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32739862 32799707 32889628 31989601 31489590 31069697
            30919767 30989845 31549879 31909879 32739862