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Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041900Z - 042130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts are possible as storms
increase and move southward this afternoon. Watch issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A southward-moving storm cluster that developed across
OK this morning has persisted into north TX this afternoon, though
the cluster has remained relatively disorganized thus far. Some
intensification of this cluster is possible as it moves into an
increasingly unstable environment, with additional development
possible within a growing cumulus field across north TX. 15-25 kt
northerly midlevel winds and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts, from both
larger-scale outflow and potential downbursts. However, with weak
low-level flow and deep-layer shear, storm organization is expected
to remain rather limited, which in turn should limit the coverage
and magnitude of the severe-wind threat. Watch issuance is not
currently anticipated across the region.

..Dean/Guyer.. 09/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   32299779 32709949 33260068 33640098 34260113 34720108
            34780074 34660054 34550030 34249977 33729796 33409758
            33229707 33429641 33789568 33729493 33329490 32669537
            32489609 32319684 32299779