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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper anticyclone will persist over much of the western CONUS on
Monday. co*pared to prior days, weak large-scale ascent should limit
overall convective potential to mainly terrain-driven circulations
across the Four Corners region to the Mogollon Rim, and parts of the
Sierra Mountains into the Coastal Ranges of southern CA. While
strong/gusty winds may occur with any convection that can develop,
overall sparse thunderstorm coverage precludes any severe wind
probabilities.

Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad portion of the central
and eastern states extending from parts of the southern Plains to
the Northeast, mainly Monday afternoon and evening. Weak upper
troughing should extend from the ArkLaTex region northeastward to
the OH Valley and Great Lakes. Generally weak mid-level flow and
related deep-layer shear is anticipated east of this feature across
the warm sector, which should limit thunderstorm organization. Poor
mid-level lapse rates should also temper instability across much of
these regions, with moderate to perhaps strong instability
developing along/south of a weak front that should be draped across
parts of north/central TX. While occasional strong/gusty winds may
occur with any convection that develops, the threat for organized
severe thunderstorms still appears low.

..Gleason.. 09/04/2022