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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible during the late afternoon to
early evening over parts of the Desert Southwest and north Texas to
the adjacent Red River Valley.

...Desert Southwest...
On the northern periphery of a rich moisture plume centered over the
Gulf of CA, intense boundary-layer heating will again support
isolated thunderstorms developing off the higher terrain of
northwest AZ into southern NV and inland southern CA. A belt of
enhanced easterly mid-level flow will persist within this region
between a stout anticyclone over central NV and the remnants of PTC
Javier west of Baja CA. A well-mixed boundary layer will support a
threat for isolated severe wind gusts in the late afternoon to early
evening.

...Red River Valley into north TX...
A surface cold front will push south from central OK and should be
the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during
the late afternoon along the Red River. With 15-25 kt mid-level
north-northwesterlies encroaching on the frontal zone, weakly
organized clusters may congeal and spread south in north TX with a
threat for locally strong to severe wind gusts given surface
temperatures in the 90s. Storms will weaken towards/after sunset as
the boundary-layer cools and MLCIN increases.

..Grams/Goss.. 09/04/2022