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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SURROUNDING STATES...

...SUMMARY...
There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the Desert Southwest this afternoon and evening. A few strong wind
gusts may occur. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over
parts of northern Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will be centered over the Great Basin, with 20-30 kt
easterlies from AZ into southern CA. To the east, a weak upper
trough will stretch from the Great Lakes into the MS Valley/east TX,
with cool midlevel temperatures and generally weak flow. At the
surface, high pressure will be strongest from the Great Lakes into
the Mid Atlantic, with a high over the Four Corners states as well.
Beneath the midlevel trough, a weak surface trough will stretch from
the lower OH Valley into north TX, where a moist air mass will
support scattered daytime storms.

...Northern AZ westward across the CO River Valley...
Strong heating will occur over the Southwest today, with ample
precipitable water in place to support afternoon storms. MLCAPE over
1000 J/kg is likely from northwest AZ into southern NV and inland
southern CA, and the deeply mixed boundary layer may support
downdrafts. Favored areas for initiation will be over the high
terrain of northwest AZ and San Bernardino County CA. A few reports
of wind damage cannot be ruled out if a cluster or two of storms
move off the high terrain after 21Z. 

...North TX...
Strong heating will occur with a weak low developing south of the
Red River. Given the cool temperatures aloft and moist air mass in
place, scattered afternoon storms will be possible despite weak
convergence. If enough storms can form, isolated strong gusts could
occur.

..Jewell.. 09/04/2022