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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the
Desert Southwest, the southern Great Plains, and the Mid-Mississippi
and Lower Ohio River Valleys, mainly during the late afternoon and
early evening.

Storms have started to develop, with some stronger cores within the
Marginal outlook area across the Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South region.
Instability continues to increase and additional storms are expected
to develop within this Marginal risk area. For additional details,
see MCD 1760. 

One isolated storm has developed in west-central Oklahoma. The
cumulus field in this region, ahead of a weak front, suggests
additional storms may develop in the next 1 to 2 hours. Moderate
instability, may prove sufficient for a few strong to severe wind
gusts with any stronger updraft/downdraft pairs. 

A 84 mph wind gust was measured below a collapsing storm core near
Wolfforth, TX. Radar presentation suggests this was likely a small
scale microburst which caused this wind gust. Additional storms are
forming within this environment which may suggest additional strong
wind gusts are possible, but the KLBB WSR-88D shows outflow
boundaries have already extended far beyond the ongoing
thunderstorms which casts doubt on the development of additional
strong updrafts in this region. 

Some storms have developed along a front from northern Illinois into
central Michigan. These storms should remain mostly sub-severe and
expect any severe threat to be brief and isolated.

..Bentley.. 09/03/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022/

...Interior Southern CA to northwest AZ...
Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated over interior
southern CA and northwest AZ along the northern edge of a deep
moisture plume.  Although the stronger midlevel flow will reside
farther south near the international border, slightly stronger
mid-level easterly flow averaging 25 kts and steep low-level lapse
rates will result in an environment conducive for isolated
strong/severe wind gusts. 

...Northern/west-central OK to far southern KS...
Increasing frontal convergence and minimal CINH will contribute to
isolated thunderstorm development by early evening along a
slow-moving surface front.  RAP/NAM forecast soundings depict a
deep/well-mixed atmosphere and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late
afternoon.  Within this environment, an isolated stronger storm will
be capable of producing strong/potentially severe gusts.  

...Mid-MS/Lower OH River Valleys...
An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon/early evening east of a weak midlevel trough. Despite poor
lapse rates, a very moist environment and modestly enhanced
mid-level flow (20-25 kts) may yield a few storms capable of wet
microbursts, especially where breaks in cloud cover result in
locally greater buoyancy.  Storms should diminish in intensity as
the evening progresses.