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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from portions of the central Plains to the Upper
Midwest, and also across central and southern Arizona.  Locally
severe wind gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with
these storms.

...Upper Great Lakes into the central Great Plains...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across
Ontario/Quebec with the trailing part of this trough moving across
the Upper Great Lakes.  A weak midlevel trough will meander east
across the Ozarks.  A cold front will move across the Upper Midwest
and the northern/central Great Plains. 

Model guidance shows mainly 60s deg F dewpoints extending from the
central Great Plains northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes ahead of
the aforementioned front.  Diurnal heating will contribute to
1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon.  With the bulk of forcing
for ascent remaining displaced in southern Canada, only isolated
thunderstorm coverage is expected along the front.  Forecast
soundings indicate effective shear of 25-35 kt will support
multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with an attendant
risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.  Northerly midlevel flow
may support one or more southward-moving clusters across western KS
during the evening before this activity weakens/dissipates by
mid-late evening.

...Arizona...
An increase in low-level moisture is expected across parts of
Arizona, which will aid in moderate diurnal destabilization from the
Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts, and a likely increase in storm
coverage (co*pared to previous days) from late afternoon into the
evening.  Initial semi-discrete development across the higher
terrain may pose a threat for localized severe wind gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail.  Modestly enhanced midlevel easterly
flow along the southern periphery of an upper ridge will support the
potential for outflow-driven clusters to spread into the lower
deserts, posing a threat of isolated severe gusts well into the
evening.

..Smith/Lyons.. 09/02/2022