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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS  PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain of
western Arizona by late Saturday afternoon, and might organize into
a cluster capable of producing severe wind gusts while spreading
into adjacent portions of the lower Colorado Valley and Mojave
Desert Saturday evening.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the stronger westerlies will remain confined to
the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into Canada during this
period.  Within this regime, amplified mid-level troughing is
forecast to slowly progress eastward across the northeastern
Pacific, while downstream ridging and troughing similarly shift
across the Canadian Prairies and eastern Canada, respectively.

A much smaller-scale perturbation may precede the northeastern
Pacific trough inland of the Pacific Northwest, across the northern
intermountain region and Rockies by late Saturday night.  This will
occur on the northwestern periphery of a prominent mid-level high
centered over the Great Basin, which otherwise appears likely to
maintain considerable strength during this period.

Somewhat weaker mid-level ridging will prevail downstream, centered
offshore of the south Atlantic coast, with a weak mid-level trough
lingering between the highs along a positively-tilted axis from the
Ohio Valley into the southern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf coast
vicinity.  Along this axis, a weak increasingly sheared cyclonic
circulation may continue to very slowly migrate east-northeastward
across the Ozark Plateau/adjacent middle Mississippi Valley
vicinity.

...East of Rockies...
To the east and south of the weak interior U.S. mid-level trough
axis, seasonably high, deep-layer moisture content is expected to
again support scattered to numerous diurnal thunderstorms across
much of the Gulf Coast states into portions of the southern Great
Plains, Ozark Plateau and Ohio Valley.  Lingering low-level moisture
to the north and northeast may contribute to sufficient
destabilization for at least widely scattered thunderstorm activity,
along and ahead of a southward advancing cold front associated with
the eastern Canadian mid-level trough.  Generally weak lapse rates
and/or weak wind fields and shear still appear to minimize the risk
for severe storms across most areas, however.

...Southwest...
An easterly, downslope co*ponent to the near surface flow may tend
to minimize the risk for thunderstorms to the south of the higher
terrain of southeastern into central Arizona.  However, more moist
boundary-layer conditions may be maintained Saturday afternoon on
southeasterly to southerly low-level flow, to the south of western
portions of the Mogollon Rim vicinity into the lower Colorado
Valley.  Beneath modest (20-30 kt) easterly mid-level flow, wind
profiles/shear appear conducive to westerly propagation off the
higher terrain into a hot and deeply-mixed boundary layer which may
beco*e characterized by CAPE at least on the order of 1000-2000
J/kg.  There appears at least some potential for the evolution of a
consolidating and organizing cluster of storms by Saturday evening,
which could pose a risk for severe wind gusts across parts of the
lower Colorado Valley into Mojave Desert.

..Kerr.. 09/02/2022