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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that an initially deep and occluding
surface cyclone, approaching the Minnesota/Ontario border vicinity
at the outset of the period, will undergo considerable weakening
during the day Sunday, with more modest secondary surface
cyclogenesis forecast northeast of Lake Superior through the James
Bay vicinity by 12 Monday.  It appears possible that lower/mid
tropospheric wind fields may remain conditionally supportive of
organized severe weather potential on Sunday, from parts of the
middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region.  However,
models suggest that somewhat better low-level moisture return may be
confined to the Ark-La-Tex into Mid South vicinity, along the slower
moving trailing flank of the cold front.  Even within the narrow
corridor of increasing low-level moisture, increasingly modest lapse
rates may only allow for the development of weak CAPE less than 1000
J/kg.

Thereafter, through at least middle of next week, models indicate
that the westerlies will remain amplified, but with large-scale
troughing evolving across the Atlantic Seaboard into adjacent
western Atlantic, while ridging builds across the Intermountain West
into Great Plains, downstream of troughing near/offshore of the
Pacific coast.  It appears possible that a southerly return flow
could begin to develop and contribute to increasing potential
instability beneath steepening lapse rates across the southern into
central Great Plains vicinity by next Thursday.  Until then though,
severe weather probabilities appear seasonably low.