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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
***OUTBREAK OF DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO*** 

A highly amplified large-scale trough and acco*panying intense
deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains by peak heating. As a result,
strong cyclogenesis will occur over far northeastern Colorado, with
a sharpening dryline extending southward along the Kansas/Colorado
border and the Texas/New Mexico border. The co*bination of a tight
surface pressure gradient, hot/dry conditions behind the dryline,
and deep/powerful south-southwesterly flow will result in extremely
critical fire-weather conditions from east-central New Mexico into
eastern Colorado on Day 2/Friday.

...East-central New Mexico into eastern Colorado...
As temperatures climb into the upper 70s to middle 80s behind the
sharpening dryline, deep boundary-layer mixing into very dry air
aloft will result in widespread 5-15 percent minimum RH. At the same
time, 30-40 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with
gusts upwards of 50-60 mph) will overspread critically dry fuels
(ERCs in the 90th+ percentile). The volatile co*bination of very
strong/gusty winds, anomalously warm/dry conditions, and near-record
dry fuels will encourage extreme fire-weather conditions. 

...Remainder of the central and southern High Plains...
The eastern extent of critical fire-weather conditions will be
demarcated by the placement of the dryline, which is somewhat
unclear at this time. Regardless, strong 30+ mph sustained southerly
surface winds (with higher gusts) will extend into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and western Nebraska --
where fuels remain critically dry.

..Weinman.. 04/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...