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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Mid/upper-level heights will rise across the Northeast as a
synoptic-scale trough departs the region by 00Z, while mean ridging
amplifies over the Pacific Northwest and much of western Canada
through the period.  In between, a strong, northern-stream shortwave
trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern AB,
will phase with a weaker perturbation now over the northern Rockies.
The co*bined trough should extend the length of MB by 00Z, then
southwestward over southeastern MT to north-central WY.  The CONUS
segment of that trough should weaken across the northern Plains
overnight.  In the meantime, isolated/high-based thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon ahead of the trough, and near a weak cold
front, over the northeastern MT/northwestern ND area.  A deeply
mixed subcloud layer in forecast soundings suggests potential for
strong gusts, but severe potential is too low/isolated for an
outlook area, because of limited moisture/buoyancy.

Meanwhile, a vorticity max that broke from a cutoff cyclonic
circulation over northern MX, and now is centered over southwestern
OK, will move east-northeastward in greater phase with a weak
shortwave trough extending from northeastern NE to southwestern KS. 
The co*bined trough will remain weak, with broad curvature and
modest mid/upper flow, while shifting slowly eastward over IA,
northwestern MO, KS, and OK through 12Z tomorrow.  All these systems
will contribute to general thunder potential from the southern
Borderlands and southern Plains to the western Corn Belt.  However,
where rich moisture exists, vertical shear will be very weak, and
vice versa.

A quasistationary frontal zone was analyzed on the 11Z surface chart
from eastern SC across central GA, southern AL, and northern LA,
beco*ing a slow-moving warm front over western AR and central/
northwestern OK.  This boundary will continue to define the northern
rim of the favorably moist Gulf boundary layer within which diurnal
heating will reduce MLCINH, favoring widely scattered to scattered,
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  Relative concentrations
of convection should exist around the FL sea breezes and ahead of
the southern Plains perturbation aloft.

..Edwards/Goss.. 09/01/2022