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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated and marginal severe threat will be possible this evening
from eastern Oklahoma eastward into the western Ozarks, where an
isolated supercell with hail and a few severe gusts are possible.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving eastward across
central Oklahoma. A dryline is located just ahead of the front
extending southward into southern Oklahoma and north Texas. The
airmass ahead of the front is moist and unstable, with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s F.  The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range. A weak capping inversion is present, but low-level
convergence has increased over the last couple of hours along the
dryline. At mid-levels, water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
moving eastward across southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. The
more favorable large-scale ascent will continue to move eastward
away from the southern Plains this evening. Even so, RAP forecast
soundings continue to weaken the cap over the next few hours,
suggesting that convective initiation will still be possible from
eastern Oklahoma north-northeastward into far southeast Kansas and
far southwest Missouri. Satellite imagery shows a small area of
agitated cumulus about 30 miles south-southwest of Tulsa. If a cell
can initiate in this area and beco*e rooted in the boundary layer,
then a supercell could develop. The moderate instability co*bined
with about 40 knots of deep-layer shear would support a hail and
isolated strong wind gusts. However, convective coverage is expected
to remain very isolated so will downgrade to marginal risk for this
outlook.

..Broyles.. 04/21/2022