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Mesoscale Discussion 1750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Areas affected...Eastern NY...Eastern PA...Northwest NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301701Z - 301900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as thunderstorm
coverage increases this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus from
eastern PA and into eastern NY, with a few instances of convective
initiation east of BGM. This deepening is occurring in the vicinity
of weak surface troughing ahead a broad upper trough still back west
over the Upper Great Lakes and the middle OH Valley. Expectation is
for this trend to continue as large-scale forcing for ascent and
modest low-level convergence persist. This should result in
gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. 

The expectation is for these thunderstorms to develop within the
moist and warm corridor ahead of the thicker cloud band, but to the
west of the clearer skies and stronger diurnal heating from the
lower Hudson Valley and across much of NJ. Steeper low-level lapse
rates are expected in these areas of stronger heating, but this
mixing will limit buoyancy and thunderstorm intensity.

Expectation is for a predominantly multicellular storm mode, with
limited updraft strength. Even so, a few water-loaded downbursts are
still possible, particularly with any storms that are able develop
strong updrafts. Storm mergers could also result in enough water
loading to produce a damaging downburst.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   42647609 43507524 43727479 43797446 43767408 43647383
            43457351 43007337 42397357 41067434 40167509 39787618
            40017721 41277705 42647609