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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with thunderstorms
across parts of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...
On the east side of a prominent upper ridge over the western CONUS,
a weak mid-level perturbation should move southeastward across parts
of the central Plains on Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture is
forecast to return northward through the day across the central High
Plains on the western periphery of a surface high centered over
eastern KS and MO. Scattered thunderstorms should develop from
northeastern CO into NE Wednesday afternoon along and south of a
weak boundary. Strong daytime heating will act to deeply mix the
boundary layer across these regions, with forecast soundings showing
inverted-v type soundings. Even though instability should remain
fairly weak, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, substantial DCAPE
should promote a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts with
convective downdrafts as thunderstorms spread southeastward through
the early evening. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should also
foster some convective organization, with loosely organized clusters
possible.

...Western New York...
An amplified upper trough will continue eastward over the Northeast
and eastern Canada on Wednesday. A mid-level shortwave embedded
within this upper trough should overspread Ontario, southern Quebec,
and NY through the day. Enhanced mid-level winds will acco*pany this
feature, with strong deep-layer shear also present. Most guidance
shows a band of thunderstorms developing and spreading quickly
eastward across parts of western/northern NY Wednesday afternoon.
Some risk for strong/gusty winds may acco*pany this convection, but
instability is forecast to remain rather weak. Given the potential
thermodynamic limitations, have opted to not include low severe wind
probabilities at this time. But, trends will be monitored.

..Gleason.. 08/30/2022