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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may produce pockets
of wind damage mainly during afternoon and early evening across
parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
The main synoptic feature of influence for this forecast will be a
trough now evident in moisture-channel imagery from far northern ON
across eastern Lake Superior, western Lower MI, to the lower Ohio
Valley.  On that trough's north side, consolidation of several
shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima will result in a quasistationary,
closed cyclone over the James Bay/southern Hudson Bay region and
adjoining parts of ON/QC for much of the period.  As that occurs, a
basal shortwave trough -- initially located over Lower MI and IN --
will pivot northeastward across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley regions, reaching western parts of NY/PA/WV by 00Z.  By 12Z,
the shortwave trough should weaken and reach Maine, Cape Cod, to
offshore from NJ.

The associated surface cold front was analyzed at 11Z from extreme
western QC across southern ON, western OH, southern parts of IN/IL/
MO, central OK, and the TX South Plains.  By 00Z, the front should
extend from central/eastern portions of NY/PA across WV, eastern KY,
middle TN, to central parts of AR/OK.  By 12Z tomorrow, the front
should be offshore from the Northeast, while reaching parts of the
Carolinas, AL/MS and north TX.  A prefrontal trough was drawn over
central NY, east-central PA, northern VA and western NC; this trough
should move eastward slowly through the early afternoon before being
obscured by convective processes.

...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms should develop along/
ahead of the cold front and near a prefrontal surface trough/
convergence zone today, offering strong (35-45-kt) gusts capable of
scattered tree damage, but only isolated severe/50+ kt gusts.

This activity should develop atop richly moist boundary layer (with
heating contributing only minor mixing and RH reduction).  Surface
dewpoints should remain co*monly in the mid 60s to lower 70s F.  A
slot of relatively thin/spotty cloud cover, between the frontal band
and an offshore perturbation, should allow sufficient duration/
intensity of surface heating to remove MLCINH by midday to early
afternoon across this corridor, contributing to development of a
quasi-linear belt of convection that will move eastward to
northeastward.  Substantial large-scale DCVA/ascent and mid/upper
winds aloft with the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley trough each should lag
the frontal/prefrontal corridor.  As such, weak midlevel lapse rates
will temper overall buoyancy and updraft intensity somewhat, with
MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range.  Effective-shear magnitudes will
vary from less than 30 kt over southern parts of the outlook area to
35-40 kt in the north.  Convection should weaken this evening as it
encounters a more-stable boundary layer.

..Edwards/Goss.. 08/30/2022