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Mesoscale Discussion 1747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Missouri to central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530...

Valid 292341Z - 300145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and strong to severe winds
continues across northeast Missouri into central Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized cells and thunderstorm clusters
continue to develop along a surface cold front draped across
northeast IL into northern MO, as well as along a remnant
outflow/confluence boundary across central to eastern IL. This
activity has shown signs of intensification and improving
organization over the past hour with cooling cloud top temperatures
and increasing echo top heights (per latest MRMS estimates) and a
recent hail report of 1.25 inches. This suggests the convection is
beginning to fully realize the ample buoyancy that remains across
central IL (MLCAPE values up to 4000 J/kg). While the latest KILX
VWP observations show somewhat meager flow aloft, effective bulk
shear remains near 25-30 knots, which is adequate for organized
cells/clusters. The approach of the upper-level trough axis this
evening may bolster mid/upper-level flow and maintain the potential
for severe hail/wind for the next several hours.

..Moore.. 08/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40499162 40788950 40878779 40558747 39758759 39208805
            39068966 39139081 39639147 40009180 40499162