Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...Central Illinois and northeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 292123Z - 292330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front will mature
within a very unstable air mass with sufficient wind shear for
organized, severe convection. A watch will likely be needed to
address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway across the IA/MO/IL
tri-state region as a cold front pushes to the southeast into a very
unstable air mass (SBCAPE upwards of 5000 J/kg per latest RAP
mesoanalysis estimates). Additional convective towers are noted
ahead of this front across central IL along a weak confluence
zone/remnant outflow boundary from prior convection earlier today.
Regional VWPs are sampling 30-45 knot westerly flow above 3 km,
which is supporting upwards of 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear
and strong shear in the 0-3 km layer. This will be supportive of
severe cells/clusters, which may consolidate into a line across IL
through the evening hours. A watch will likely be needed within the
next 30 minutes to address this concern.

..Moore/Grams.. 08/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   40119251 40849056 41118931 40968760 39308770 38948968
            39229148 40119251