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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional wind
damage Tuesday afternoon and early evening across parts of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
An elongated upper trough should extend from central Canada
southward over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley regions
Tuesday morning. This upper trough is forecast to move eastward
across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period.
Heating of a moist low-level airmass should occur ahead of a cold
front that is likewise expected to sweep eastward over these
regions. However, persistent cloudiness and poor mid-level lapse
rates should limit the degree of instability that develops Tuesday
afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE stays generally in
the 500-1000 J/kg range.

The stronger mid-level southwesterly winds attendant to the upper
trough should tend to lag the surface warm sector to some extent.
But, around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should still be present
across much of the warm sector Tuesday afternoon. This shear will
aid in modest updraft organization, with multicells and loosely
organized clusters expected to be the dominant convective mode.
Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity
Tuesday afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. Isolated damaging
winds appear to be the main severe threat with this activity as it
spreads eastward across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
through early Tuesday evening, before eventually weakening. The
Marginal Risk has been expanded across these regions based on latest
model trends, with the southern extent of appreciable severe risk
remaining uncertain. There was not enough confidence in a more
focused area of damaging wind potential to include greater severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/29/2022