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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across parts of the central Great
Plains and Missouri Valley late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night, posing a risk for large hail and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A progressive, mostly zonal mid-level flow regime is forecast to
gradually beco*e more southwesterly, as a digging shortwave trough
coalesces across the West Coast. Ahead of this feature, several
small perturbations embedded within the mid-level flow will cross
the central Rockies and move over the Plains late Thursday. In
response to the subtle lift, a lee trough should strengthen with a
surface low developing across the TX Panhandle and southern Colorado
by 00z Friday. Aided by the deepening lee low, southerly return flow
east of a sharpening dryline may allow for a few severe storms to
develop across the central Great Plains/Missouri Valley late
Thursday through early Friday.

...Central Plains into the Missouri Valley...
A warm front near the KS/OK border will lift northward across the
central Plains Thursday, as an increasingly warm/moist airmass (mean
mixing ratios of 12-14 G/kg) rapidly develops in its wake.
Isentropic ascent near the frontal zone will likely support
widespread cloud cover/drizzle early Thursday morning across
northern OK into southern/central KS, delaying initial insolation.
The lingering clouds and weak mid-level height rises ahead of the
amplifying upstream trough suggests stout capping will likely remain
in place through much of the day. The subtle forcing for ascent, and
the strong inhibition remain the primary cause of uncertainty for
severe potential through the forecast period. 

Despite the uncertainty, by late afternoon/early evening, a
sharpening dryline mixing east should stall and begin to retreat as
the nocturnal low-level jet increases low-level warm advection
across the Plains. The co*bination of remnant dryline circulation,
lift associated with the low-level jet and the approach of a small
mid-level perturbation across the central Plains may support
convective initiation along triple point/dryline around 00z. Should
inhibition be overco*e, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and strongly veering
wind profiles below 3km may support a conditional risk for
supercells capable of all hazards, persisting for a few hours after
sunset. 

Farther north in the vicinity of the warm front near the KS/NE
border and into the Missouri valley, strong isentropic ascent is
expected at the nose of the 45-55 kt low-level jet. Given steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, moistening of the lower column
will likely result in moderate destabilization (1500-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE) through the day. 30-40 kt of effective shear rooted above
the surface may support a few supercells capable of severe hail into
early Friday.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 04/20/2022