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Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Areas affected...far eastern Iowa across northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291442Z - 291645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms over eastern Iowa are being monitored for upscale
growth as they shift into Illinois. Damaging wind and hail will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms over southeast IA continue to show strong/deep
updrafts at times with hail potential, but thus far outflow
production has been minimal. The 12Z DVN sounding is very unstable
with MLCAPE already over 3000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates.
Deep-layer mean winds are around 35 kt, which may favor forward
propagation later today. Visible imagery shows ample heating will
take place ahead of the ongoing storms, and additional convection is
forming along the northeastward extension of the front/wind shift. 

As the air mass continues to destabilize, downdraft production may
eventually increase to the point of supporting a more organized wind
threat, evolving out of the existing IA activity.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41039207 41309171 42089063 42458987 42618904 42788775
            42338769 41658742 41158760 40508834 40428895 40759202
            41039207