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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley into the southwest Great Lakes.  The threat may
begin as early as the morning and continue through the late
afternoon and early evening.  Severe gusts resulting in wind damage
will be the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over the Upper Midwest will amplify as
it moves southeastward into the Midwest/Great Lakes during the
period.  A belt of strong 50-kt 500 mb flow will move through the
base of the trough.  In the low levels, a front will push east and
southeast across a large part of the Midwest and central Great
Plains.  The boundary will aid in focusing thunderstorm development
during the afternoon across the central Great Plains
east-northeastward into the mid MS Valley.  

...Mid MS Valley into the Great Lakes/OH Valley...
Impressive moisture quality was noted on the Sunday evening lower MO
Valley raobs (i.e., TOP, SGF, OAX) located upstream of the mid MS
Valley.  The TOP raob sampled an 18.1 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing
ratio and the TOP and SGF raobs were near their 100 mb lowest mean
mixing ratio climatological maximum for late August.  Additionally,
a plume of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates was sampled at OAX.  

A large moisture/buoyancy reservoir will extend from the southwest
Great Lakes across the lower MO Valley into KS/OK.  It remains
uncertain regarding the mechanism and potential evolution of
thunderstorms across the mid MS Valley, potentially as early as the
morning from initially elevated thunderstorms over IA. 
Convection-allowing models understandably exhibit large spread in
possible solutions of an MCS across the mid MS Valley and into the
southern Great Lakes/OH Valley.  Have increased wind probabilities
to account for increased confidence in both spatial extent/magnitude
of the threat from eastern IA across IL and into parts of IN.  

Farther south into central IL and MO, weaker flow will result in
less storm organization with scattered storms that likely develop
during the afternoon.  The risk for severe will likely taper from
northeast to southwest (IL into MO).  

...KS/OK into the southern High Plains...
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of a rich moisture
from central OK northward into central/eastern KS.  Model guidance
indicates a very unstable airmass will develop by mid afternoon from
the TX Panhandle/OK northward into KS.  Strong heating will lead to
steep 0-3 km lapse rates and a weakening cap.  Isolated to scattered
storms are expected over this general region.  The stronger
thunderstorms will probably yield the potential for microbursts and
an acco*panying threat for isolated severe gusts and perhaps
marginally severe hail.  A coalescing of outflow will likely result
in several strong to locally severe clusters.  This activity will
diminish during the evening.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/29/2022