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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may be capable of wind damage Tuesday
afternoon and early evening across parts of northern Virginia into
New York.

...New York to northern Virginia...

An upper trough over the upper Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley will
shift east on Tuesday, beco*ing oriented over the lower Great Lakes
to the Mid-Atlantic coast. A belt of enhanced mid/upper
south/southwesterly flow will overspread the upper OH Valley into
northern VA/PA/NY and vicinity. 25-35 kt of midlevel flow and modest
effective-shear magnitudes will aid in some loosely organized
convection across the region. Some uncertainty exists with regards
to coverage of early day showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover
downstream from an eastward-advancing cold front, especially across
PA/NY. Some better heating may occur with southward into northern VA
and vicinity. However, this area will remain south of the stronger
midlevel flow over PA/NY. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates will
remain quite poor. Nevertheless, a very moist airmass will be in
place ahead of the cold front, contributing to modest instability
(around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) where pockets of stronger heating can
occur. Sporadic strong storms capable of localized tree damage will
be possible in clusters along/ahead of the front through early
evening.

..Leitman.. 08/29/2022