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Mesoscale Discussion 1735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 525...526...

Valid 282317Z - 290115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 525, 526 continues.

SUMMARY...Discrete supercell development appears increasingly
probable into the 7-9 PM time frame, before storms consolidate into
an organizing cluster.  Large hail appears the primary initial
severe hazard, though potential for a couple of tornadoes could
increase before the risk for damaging wind gusts beco*es more
prominent later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convection is evident along the surface
trough axis into areas near/east of the South Dakota/Minnesota
border, perhaps most notably near a weak surface low to the
west-southwest of Alexandria, MN.  This low coincides with the
intersection of the surface trough and a weak warm front which has
developed, aided by differential surface heating beneath the nose of
a plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, east-south of the low
toward the La Crosse, WI vicinity.

The leading edge of cooling around the 700 mb level is in the
process of overspreading the western Minnesota/Dakotas border
vicinity and seems likely to support more rapid thunderstorm
development to the south of the main ongoing initial cluster near
Bemidji, MN within the next couple of hours.  Aided by steep
lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, low-level moisture is
contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg east of the
surface trough axis and along/southwest of the warm frontal zone. 
In the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear beneath an
approaching 50+ kt jet in the 500-300 mb layer, the environment is
beco*ing increasingly conducive to organized severe storm
development

Strongest storms into the 00-02Z time frame probably will beco*e
focused along and to the cool side of the warm frontal zone (roughly
near/north of the Interstate 94 corridor), where discrete supercells
are possible initially before forcing for ascent associated with
warm advection contributes to an upscale growing thunderstorm
cluster.  With low-level hodographs still generally weak, large hail
may be the primary initial severe hazard.  However, modest
strengthening of flow (to around 30+ kt) in the 850-700 mb layer by
early evening may enlarge clockwise curved low-level hodographs
enough to contribute to a risk for a tornado or two, particularly
along the warm frontal zone, before damaging surface gusts beco*e
the more prominent hazard later this evening.

..Kerr.. 08/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46329562 46399479 45349276 44319308 45029486 45089588
            45879606 46329562