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Mesoscale Discussion 1734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Areas affected...Northern IL into southern WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524...

Valid 282048Z - 282215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
will continue through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...At 2045Z, an arc of convection is spreading
northeastward across northern IL and southern WI, in conjunction
with an MCV now moving across far eastern IA. Measured wind gusts
have thus far been sub-severe in association with these storms,
though a few reports of tree damage have been noted. Moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) will help to maintain storm
intensity as storms spread toward the Chicago/Milwaukee areas by
late afternoon/early evening. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
and 30-40 kt of flow in the 1-3 km layer (as noted in KDVN and KLOT
VWPs) will continue to support a threat of damaging winds. Also,
despite the primarily linear convective mode, favorable low-level
moisture/buoyancy and modestly enhanced low-level shear may support
a brief tornado or two with any embedded mesovortices.

..Dean.. 08/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   43358944 43818903 43838814 43648780 42848753 41968748
            41578802 41378865 41358892 41398913 41418928 41948916
            42608923 42948957 43078972 43358944