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Mesoscale Discussion 1733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Areas affected...much of northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 282009Z - 282215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop after 21Z,
with large hail and damaging gusts most likely.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push east toward the ND/MN
border, extending into southeast SD. Ahead of the front, heating has
contributed to MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg from eastern SD into southwest
MN, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While early day rain and
clouds has limited destabilization over northern areas, continued
cooling aloft and increasing lift may co*pensate. As such,
convergence along the front will likely lead to surface-based storms
developing by 22Z as only a minor inversion exists above 850 mb.

Mixed-mode severe appears most likely, with cells and line segments
along the front. Increasing midlevel winds of 40-50 kt will result
in primarily straight hodographs, although modest values of
low-level SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 exists across the warm sector.
However, as storms increase in coverage and intensity through 00Z,
additional low-level wind response is anticipated. The result should
be both large hail and damaging winds, but a brief tornado may also
occur within portions of the broken line, especially near the weak
surface low moving from SD into MN.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   48139689 49009706 49019518 49429516 49359480 48809460
            48679384 48549369 48179356 47759355 46619378 45839400
            45339460 45399617 45489647 47249664 48139689