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Mesoscale Discussion 1732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northern IL...southern WI...far eastern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281734Z - 281900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind gusts and potentially a
tornado or two will be possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually increasing early this afternoon
across far eastern IA into western IL, in advance of a well-defined
MCV centered near southeast IA. MLCAPE has increased into the
1500-2000 J/kg range across the region, with some additional
destabilization possible through the afternoon, given the relative
lack of cloudiness downstream of the developing storms. The 17Z DVN
sounding and recent VWPs from KDVN indicate increasing flow through
a deep layer in association with the MCV, supporting sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized storm development, including the
potential for a couple of supercells as storms mature this
afternoon. 

Favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy and modestly enhanced
low-level flow/shear will be sufficient for some tornado threat with
any sustained supercells. The strongest cells/clusters will also be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, as low-level lapse rates
steepen downstream of the MCV. Rather weak midlevel lapse rates and
warm temperatures aloft will temper the hail threat to some extent,
though isolated hail cannot be ruled out with any supercell
development. Watch issuance is possible by 18-19Z.

..Dean/Thompson.. 08/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42199051 42589042 42968995 43218914 43148893 42758848
            42298839 41678847 41318864 40998892 40728950 40728999
            41389035 42199051