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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should occur Monday across parts of
the Great Lakes into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and central Plains.
Damaging wind gusts should be the main threat, with some hail also
possible.

...Great Lakes into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Central Plains...
An upper trough will continue to progress eastward across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes, OH Valley, and mid MS Valley on Monday. At the
surface, the primary low is forecast to develop eastward across
central/eastern Canada through the period, with a trailing cold
front expected to sweep east-southeastward from the Upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The stronger mid-level winds
associated with the upper trough are forecast to lag behind the cold
front to some extent. Even so, upper 60s to at least low 70s surface
dewpoints should be in place ahead of the front. Daytime heating of
this moist low-level airmass should contribute to the development of
moderate to strong instability arcing from parts of Lower MI into
the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and KS by Monday afternoon. A plume of
steep mid-level lapse rates should also be present across parts of
KS/MO into IL, and locally very strong instability, with MLCAPE
around 3500-4500 J/kg, may develop in a narrow corridor across these
regions along and just ahead of the cold front.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective
development and evolution across the Great Lakes into the Midwest
and OH Valley Monday afternoon and evening. The potential for a
decaying cluster of thunderstorms related to overnight convection
across the Upper Midwest remains apparent in some guidance. If this
cluster can maintain itself through the morning, it may shunt
greater instability and thunderstorm potential farther south ahead
of the front into the OH and mid MS Valleys. Even though these
regions will generally be on the southeastern extent of appreciable
mid-level flow, loosely organized clusters of convection may still
be capable of producing isolated damaging winds as low-level lapse
rates beco*e steepened. Have expanded the Marginal Risk to account
for this potential.

Otherwise, it appears probable that more robust/organized
thunderstorms will form along/near the cold front by Monday
afternoon. The best co*bination of strong forecast instability and
modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should occur across parts of
the Midwest into Lower MI. 15% severe wind probabilities have been
introduced across this area where the greatest concentration of
thunderstorm clusters may occur based on some convection-allowing
guidance. Given the potential for morning convection, some
adjustments to the Slight Risk may be needed as mesoscale details
and model/convective trends dictate.

..Gleason.. 08/28/2022