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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will probably occur this
afternoon through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.
Severe/damaging wind gusts and large hail should be the main
threats, but a tornado or two is also possible.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A well-defined shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight.  The primary
surface cyclone will be in Manitoba with an attendant front
extending southward into the north-central US.  As the front pushes
east, it will likely serve as the main boundary for thunderstorm
development during the afternoon.  Along and ahead of the front,
moistening low levels during the day will result in dewpoints
ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s over southern MN. 
Strong surface heating and steep 700-500 lapse rates will result in
a moderately to very unstable airmass developing by mid afternoon. 
Local erosion of the cap will probably occur initially over
central/northern MN.  Forecast sounding show vertical shear
supporting organized storms, including supercells.  The risk for
supercells will likely be during the early part of the convective
lifecycle before some upscale growth into one or more clusters
occurs during the evening.  Large to very large hail and a supercell
tornado are possible during the early phase of storm activity, and
severe wind will beco*e an increasing hazard as the convective mode
transitions.  

Uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage over far southern
MN into western IA/eastern NE along the trailing boundary.  Isolated
storms are possible within this corridor with multicells capable of
a wind/hail risk.

...Southwest Great Lakes...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough initially over the MO/IA/NE/KS
vicinity will move east-northeast during the period and weaken as it
reaches the western shore of Lake Michigan by early evening.  A
seasonably moist airmass will destabilize during the day as a warm
frontal zone advances northeast into the Great Lakes.  Isolated to
scattered storms may develop on residual outflow from decayed
morning activity.  A few multicells may be capable of a localized
wind-damage threat during the afternoon into the early evening.

...OK...
Shower/thunderstorm activity prior to the start of the period over
the southern Plains will likely lead to the development of outflow
and a residual boundary.  This boundary may serve as a focus for
additional storm development during the late afternoon/early evening
from the TX Panhandle through the northern half of OK.  Forecast
soundings show effective shear around 20 kt and relatively high PW
with steepened 0-2 km lapse rates.  A few of the stronger storms may
be capable of severe gusts on a localized basis.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/28/2022