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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will develop eastward
to the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will
persist over the western U.S. Any stronger deep-layer flow will
remain confined to the Great Lakes vicinity the Northeast. At the
surface, a cold front oriented from Lower MI toward the I-70
corridor in MO/KS will develop east/southeast through the period. By
early Wednesday morning, the front will extend from New England the
central Carolinas, then westward across the TN Valley to central OK.
While a moist airmass will be in place across the upper OH Valley
into the Northeast, poor midlevel lapse rates and areas of ongoing
rainfall/cloud cover will suppress instability. Severe potential
will further be limited by modest vertical shear. 

Stronger instability will be in place along the frontal zone from
the southern Plains into the TN Valley, along with high PW values.
However, vertical shear will remain quite weak and convection will
be poorly organized. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and
water-loaded downdrafts could result in sporadic strong downburst
winds, though potential for organized severe storms appears low.

..Leitman.. 08/28/2022