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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF IA/MN/WI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears most concentrated today over
parts of Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

...IA/MN/WI this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the central NE/KS border will
continue moving northeastward to western IA by this evening and the
upper MS Valley overnight.  Clouds and ongoing convection within a
deep moisture plume over the central Plains will likewise spread
northeastward through the day.  Surface heating to the east of the
thicker cloud band and relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates
will contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, and the likelihood of
additional thunderstorm development this afternoon in the zone of
differential heating from IA into southern MN (along and south of a
warm front).  Vertical shear profiles are forecast to be a bit
disjointed with substantially backed/weaker flow in the mid levels
across IA this afternoon.  Low-level shear/clockwise hodograph
curvature will be larger this afternoon/evening closer to the warm
front across southeast MN/western WI, with a similar weakness in the
midlevel flow.  Thus, the environment favors a mixed/messy storm
mode with clusters and some transient rotating updrafts, with a
primary threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail given the
moderately large buoyancy/precipitation loading and sufficiently
steep low-midlevel lapse rates (DCAPE near 1000 J/kg).

...TX Panhandle into KS this afternoon/evening...
Along the southern fringe of the residual monsoonal moisture plume
and the ejecting midlevel trough over northern KS, differential
heating and weak convergence along a lee trough will support
scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon.  Midlevel
lapse rates will not be steep, but surface heating/mixing will
steepen low-level lapse rates, and westerly flow aloft will
contribute to modest effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt.  Somewhat
organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing isolated
strong-severe outflow gusts and marginally severe hail from mid
afternoon into this evening.  

...Southern MT and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
Within the primary jet, an embedded speed max/shortwave trough over
southern BC and WA will progress eastward to MT later this afternoon
into tonight.  An associated cold front will move into central MT by
this evening, with strong surface heating and deep mixing in advance
of the front.  Some high-based convection is expected to form over
the higher terrain of southern MT later this afternoon, and storms
will spread eastward into this evening.  Though low-level moisture
and buoyancy will be limited, deep inverted-v profiles will support
isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.

..Thompson/Karstens.. 08/27/2022