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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MN...WESTERN WI AND NORTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of Minnesota, western Wisconsin
and northwest Iowa. Hail and strong gusts will be main hazards with
this activity.

...Upper Midwest...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will be located over the Lower MO/Upper
MS Valleys Sunday morning, while a stronger mid/upper shortwave
trough is oriented over the northern High Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing across parts of IA/WI/IL Sunday
morning as the lead shortwave trough lifts northeast across the
Great Lakes. Severe potential across parts of the Mid-MS Valley into
WI/MI through peak heating is uncertain due to early day
convection/cloud cover. 

At least isolated severe potential appears more likely further west
during the late afternoon into the evening hours across parts of MN,
northwest IA and western WI, as the northern High Plains trough
ejects eastward across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Stronger west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will acco*pany the
shortwave trough, overspread the Red River and Upper MS Valleys by
late afternoon. A cold front will progress eastward across the
Dakotas, beco*ing oriented north to south along the Dakotas/MN
border by around 21z. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and increasing
large-scale ascent, in conjunction with low-level frontal
convergence, should support scattered thunderstorm development near
the front across western MN by late afternoon/early evening. At
least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop south/southwest
along the front into northwest IA. 

A seasonally moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate to strong instability. Effective-shear magnitudes around
35+ kt will support organized storms, with clusters and possibly a
couple of supercells possible. Convection may quickly beco*e
undercut by the surging cold front, resulting in elevated storms to
the cool side of the front. Furthermore, the timing of convection
will coincide with increasing low-level inhibition around/after 00z.
Nevertheless, isolated strong gusts and hail will be possible with
this activity. A Marginal risk has been included for parts of
MN/WI/IA, with uncertainty in timing of convection and coverage of
more intense cells precluding higher probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2022