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Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262304Z - 270030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell tornado or landspout/tornado hybrid may occur
if a robust thunderstorm updraft can beco*e sustained. A WW issuance
is not expected given the localized, brief nature of the severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is attempting to intensify along a
confluence band in Clark/Beadle Counties in SD, pendent from a
meso-beta scale MCV. Immediately ahead of the band, surface winds
are backed, with temperatures/dewpoints ranging from 73/63F at KATY
to 81/66F at KHON. In this immediate area, 22Z mesoanalysis shows
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal MLCINH amid 30-40 kts of effective
bulk shear. ABR and FSD VWPS depict relatively large, curved
low-level hodographs given the veering/strengthening vertical wind
profile, with 0-3 km SRH exceeding 300 m2/s2, as also suggested by
22Z mesoanalysis. While 0-3km CAPE is only around 50 J/kg,
near-surface vertical-oriented vorticity is quite strong along the
confluence zone. Taking all this into consideration, a conditional
localized tornado or landspout-hybrid threat exists pending storm
intensification/organization.

At the moment, KABR radar shows an intensifying cell in Clark
County. On the other hand, visible satellite also shows the presence
of billow clouds over the area, where stability may constrain the
severe weather threat in both areal coverage and intensity. As such,
the severe threat should remain too localized and isolated for a WW
issuance at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44459811 44919813 45269795 45359752 45179721 44859717
            44589730 44349766 44459811