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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across the Northeast, as well as parts of the northern High
Plains.

...Northeast this afternoon/evening...
Embedded speed maxima will progress eastward from the lower Great
Lakes to New England, within the southern portion of a broad belt of
cyclonic mid-upper flow over southeast Canada.  Likewise, a weak
surface cyclone will move eastward from the Saint Lawrence Valley to
ME by early tonight, as a trailing cold front moves southeastward
across PA/NY/Southern New England.  Scattered, slightly elevated
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over eastern NY in
association with a lead shortwave trough.  Surface heating and
boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s east of this convection and
a pre-frontal trough will result in destabilization and will support
surface-based thunderstorm development by early afternoon.  Clusters
and short line segments will subsequently spread eastward across New
England in an environment of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt with
modest hodograph length/low-level clockwise curvature).  Occasional
damaging gusts will be the main threat, though marginally severe
hail and an isolated tornado will be possible.  Isolated strong
cells may occur farther west across NY this afternoon, near and east
of the cold front, with more veered low-level flow and weaker
vertical shear.

...Northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening...
A weak midlevel trough will continue moving eastward over MT through
this evening, and it will be preceded by a convectively-enhanced
trough/MCV moving east-northeastward over SD.  The southern fringe
of the SD MCV will coincide with a corridor of boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s along a warm front, but it is not clear that
additional (surface-based storms) will form this afternoon across
eastern SD.  Otherwise, surface heating and residual 55-60 F
dewpoints along a weak lee trough (in the zone of ascent downstream
from the midlevel trough) will support afternoon/evening
thunderstorm development from eastern MT into northeastern WY. 
Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and deeper mixing across WY/MT
will support the potential for isolated severe outflow winds/hail. 
Convection will tend to beco*e elevated and will weaken with time
while moving eastward into weakening buoyancy and larger convective
inhibition across the Dakotas late this evening into tonight.

..Thompson/Jirak.. 08/26/2022