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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across the Northeast States on Friday, as well as across
parts of the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a pair of broad
upper-level troughs over the Great Lakes and northern Rockies. Both
of these features are expected to gradually translate east over the
next 24 hours, and will support the potential for organized
convection across New England and the northern High Plains
respectively. 

...New England...
Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled modest (5-6 K/km) mid-level lapse
rates from the upper OH river valley into the Northeast, suggesting
that destabilization today will likely be conditional on the degree
of daytime heating. Partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning will
limit insolation, though areas that achieve sufficient clearing may
see temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s amid low 60s
dewpoints. A weak surface trough/cold front, noted in latest
observations/MSLP analyses over the Great Lakes region, is forecast
to reach the New England region by midday. This poor phasing with
the diurnal heating maximum (co*bined with patchy clouds) may limit
instability to around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, low to
mid-level winds ahead of the trough are forecast to increase to
20-40 knots, which should be supportive of a few organized
cells/clusters and perhaps a linear segment or two capable of
scattered damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Winds
ahead of the surface trough may be sufficiently backed to support
adequate low-level SRH to support a low-end tornado threat with more
intense, discrete cells. 

...Northern High Plains...
A lee trough is expected to deepen across the northern High Plains
through the day as the northern Rockies upper wave gradually shifts
east. Modestly steep lapse rates sampled by 00 UTC soundings on the
southern periphery of the upper wave should remain in place and
support increasing buoyancy through the afternoon amid seasonally
high surface dewpoints in the low 60s. Instability may be limited
with eastward extent into the Dakotas due to lingering clouds/cooler
outflow air from an early-morning MCV, but a corridor of 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE appears probable by late afternoon. Thunderstorm
development along the surface trough (and possibly along a residual
outflow boundary/baroclinic zone over northeast WY/western SD) may
be limited given the somewhat weak forcing for ascent, but
south/southeasterly low-level flow should provide sufficient
effective shear for organized cells capable of isolated large hail
and severe winds. 

...Eastern Dakotas/Central Minnesota...
The convectively-augmented leading shortwave trough/MCV currently
over western SD is expected to meander into the eastern
Dakotas/western MN by late evening. A strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet ahead of this feature will bolster theta-e advection
across the eastern Dakotas/central MN and provide increasing
buoyancy and ascent for elevated convection after 06 UTC. This
activity may be periodically intense enough to support a sporadic
hail threat through 12 UTC, but limited flow aloft should generally
limit storm organization.

..Moore/Kerr.. 08/26/2022