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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A broad and deep surface cyclone, initially centered over
central/eastern South Dakota at 12Z Saturday, appears likely to
occlude while migrating northeastward into northwestern Ontario
through early Sunday, before weakening more substantively.  It
appears that warm sector instability may beco*e confined to a narrow
trailing pre-cold frontal corridor and only rather modest by peak
heating Saturday afternoon.  However, given continuing strong
lower/mid tropospheric wind fields along this corridor, latest model
output generally indicates that CAPE may beco*e sufficient to
support a renewed risk for severe thunderstorm development by late
Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Kansas into
central Iowa.

Later next weekend into early next week, positively tilted mid-level
troughing (lagging to the southwest of the weakening initial short
wave perturbation migrating into eastern Canada) may provide support
for convective development along the lingering surface front slowly
advancing east/southeast of the upper Mississippi Valley and
southeastern Great Plains.  However, with low-level wind fields
beco*ing weaker, and pre-frontal instability likely to remain
seasonably modest and confined to a narrow corridor, the risk for
severe weather seems limited.