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Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Areas affected...Portions of western and central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252045Z - 252245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected
in parts of western and central Montana this afternoon. Storms will
be capable of strong/severe wind gusts as well as isolated large
hail. A watch is not expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Slow eastward progress of the upper trough has lead to
a somewhat similar synoptic setup today as yesterday. However, this
mornings observed regional sounding data does suggest that mid-level
lapse rates are a bit less steep this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to develop over the northern Rockies. With
time this activity should spread into western and central Montana.
Southwest and central Montana have remained cloud free much of the
day and temperature have risen into the upper 70s to low 80s F.
Parts of these areas are also favorably positioned beneath the
stronger mid-level winds, where effective shear will be maximized at
30-35 kts. In northwest Montana, additional storms will be possible,
but coverage and intensity may lag due to cooler surface
temperatures and weaker shear. Strong/severe wind gusts are the
primary hazard this afternoon, though isolated large hail will also
be possible. Should clustering occur, which is most probable in
southwest Montana, a marginally more organized wind threat will
develop. A watch is not expected this afternoon.

..Wendt/Bunting.. 08/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   48161440 48781359 48901225 48741087 46331026 45821012
            45461088 45321226 45871294 46891368 48161440