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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across parts of the central Great
Plains late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, posing a risk
for large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Recent model runs have trended a bit more amplified with the
evolving mid/upper flow across the U.S. during this period. 
Large-scale troughing within the primary belt of westerlies
emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to continue
progressing inland across the Pacific coast, with one significant
embedded short wave impulse digging across the California coast
before pivoting into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, the latest ensemble output of the various models appears
to develop a more prominent mid-level high across the eastern Gulf
States than earlier runs, with broad ridging also building along an
axis to the northwest of the center, from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the eastern Canadian Prairies.  As this occurs, a
downstream trough progressing to the east of the upper Great Lakes
appears likely to dig into the north Atlantic Seaboard by late
Thursday night.

The lead mid-level trough will be acco*panied by a couple of cold
fronts.  This includes a weak initial front, which may advance into
the Mid Atlantic Coast region by 12Z Friday, while a stronger
reinforcing front advances southeast of the lower Great Lakes.  As
surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies, the western
flank of the lead front is forecast to shift northward through the
central Great Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley, while the
trailing front stalls across the upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest
into northern Great Plains.

At the same time, surface ridging, with potentially cool/dry air,
will remain an influence across much of the Southeast and
northeastern into central Gulf of Mexico, with this air tending to
slowly advect toward the northwestern Gulf coast.  However, a
southerly return flow around the southwestern periphery of this
ridge may still moisten a bit further inland of the northwestern
Gulf coast toward the high plains to the east of the southern
Rockies, and into portions of the central Great Plains and lower
Missouri Valley.

...Central Great Plains and adjacent Missouri Valley vicinity...
A dryline may sharpen across the higher terrain of southwest Texas
through the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity by late
Thursday afternoon.  This may provide a focus for at least attempts
at thunderstorm initiation, as moderately large CAPE develops in the
 presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.  However,
with the dryline likely to be in the process of retreating by early
evening, if not earlier, sustained vigorous thunderstorm development
still seems unlikely.

Enhanced low-level convergence near the dryline and warm frontal
intersection across parts of northwestern Oklahoma into adjacent
southern Kansas seems to provide the best focus for isolated severe
storm development, particularly early Thursday evening as a
southerly low-level jet begins to strengthen from 30-50+ kt. 
Although mid/upper flow will be modest in strength, veering of winds
with height probably will contribute to sufficient shear for
supercells.  These may pose a risk for producing large hail and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before severe hail beco*es the more
prominent risk as storms tend to spread north of the warm front,
along the low-level jet axis, toward the lower Missouri Valley
vicinity later Thursday evening.

Preceding this activity, storms driven by forcing associated with
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, spreading across
central/eastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley earlier in the
day, may also pose at least some risk for severe hail.

..Kerr.. 04/20/2022