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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in good agreement that modest upper flow will be
in place across the CONUS from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday.
However, in contrast, guidance continues to show variability
regarding the evolution of the co*pact shortwave trough expected to
be centered over the northern Great Basin early D4/Sunday. The more
progressive guidance takes this shortwave eastward trough the
northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest by early D5/Monday.
However, other guidance has trended towards a less progressive
solution which displaces the shortwave south of the westerlies,
causing it to drift more southeastward into the central Rockies on
D5/Monday. In either case, limited vertical shear should keep the
severe-weather threat low.

While much of the CONUS will be characterized by weak upper flow, a
strong shortwave trough is expected to move across Ontario on
D5/Monday and Quebec on D6/Tuesday. Enhanced mid-level flow
throughout the southern periphery of this wave will spread across
the Northeast on D6/Tuesday and early D7/Wednesday. Some stronger
storms may manifest across the Northeast on D6/Tuesday if this
scenario materializes.