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Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern Minnesota into northern Iowa
and far southwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242204Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind gusts/large hail may
acco*pany the stronger, more organized storms this afternoon. The
severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated and a WW
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...c*nvective initiation is underway across portions of
northwestern IA, with MRMS mosaic Radar imagery depicting a storm
over Pocahaontas County with 30 dBZ echo tops exceeding 45 kft and
MESH approaching 1 inch. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop and strengthen ahead of a surface cold front through the
remainder of the afternoon amid 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly
by upper 60s F surface dewpoints and 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates
(per 21Z mesoanalysis). However, deep-layer tropospheric wind fields
and associated vertical shear are quite weak. When considering weak
flow and the aforementioned CAPE confined to a tall/skinny profile,
overall storm organization is expected to be mediocre, with mainly
pulse cellular storms and perhaps a multicellular cluster possible.
Large hail and damaging gusts may occur, but should be sparse, so a
WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   41779342 42269462 42719492 43179487 43929403 44189289
            44239168 44129086 43529039 42989037 42319069 41969141
            41769242 41779342