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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast
States as well as portions of the northern High Plains on Friday.

...Northeast...
A shortwave trough is expected to move from Ontario and the Upper
Great Lakes eastward/northeastward through the Quebec and the
Northeast states on Friday. An attendant surface low will take a
similar track just ahead of its parent shortwave as an associated
cold front sweeps eastward. Mid 60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead
of this cold front, helping to support moderate buoyancy amid
filtered diurnal heating. Additionally, enhanced mid-level flow
(i.e., around 40 kt at 500 mb) will spread across the region ahead
of the shortwave.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
the front as it moves through. A predominantly multicellular storm
mode is anticipated across the region, but the co*bination of shear
and buoyancy will support some stronger storms/bowing line segments
capable of damaging wind gusts. 

...Northern High Plains/Western Dakotas...
A slow-moving upper low is forecast to begin the period over western
MT, before beco*ing more progressive and evolving into an open wave
as it moves into the western Dakotas/southern Saskatchewan. A weak
surface low will acco*pany this shortwave, moving ahead of it across
southeast MT and into ND. 

Southeasterly low-level upslope flow is anticipated ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough. Associated low-level moisture
advection will help keep dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s during
the afternoon. This southeasterly flow will also help increase
low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low, augmenting
the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave. This
co*bination of lift and moisture may support thunderstorm
development. Mid-level flow will be modest, but good veering with
height will still result in moderate vertical shear. Moderate
buoyancy is anticipated as well, with this co*bination of buoyancy
and shear supporting isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail
and/or strong wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2022