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Topic: SPC Aug 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 34 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Aug 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Aug 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for isolated hail and damaging winds is evident from the
northern Rockies eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley area
today.

...Synopsis...
Weak/broadly cyclonic flow aloft is forecast across the eastern
U.S., south of a deep low over the eastern Canadian Arctic region.
Meanwhile, within a prevailing western U.S. ridge, a vort max will
shift across into/across the northern Great Basin just south of a
weak, quasi-stationary low over Washington.

At the surface, a frontal zone will linger across the Gulf Coast
States into Texas.  Meanwhile, a cold front will sag slowly
southward across the northwestern and north-central U.S. through the
period.

...Eastern Washington east-southeastward to portions of the Upper
Mississippi Valley...
As a cold front shifts southward across the northern
Rockies/northern High Plains/northern Plains/Upper Midwest, daytime
heating of the moist boundary layer in the vicinity of the front
will result in 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE from the interior
Pacific Northwest to the upper Mississippi Valley.  Ascent near the
boundary, and the destabilizing environment, will yield scattered to
isolated, afternoon storm development. 

While a storm or two capable of producing gusty winds and/or hail
will be possible anywhere within this zone, slightly greater
potential may evolve over eastern and western portions of the
broader area.  From the mid Missouri to upper Mississippi Valley
portion of the area, the southeastward advance of a weak short-wave
trough suggests slightly higher potential for a damaging gust or
two.  Meanwhile, as a short-wave trough shifts across the northern
Great Basin into Idaho, and eventually western Montana, a
relative/minor concentration of hail/wind risk may occur across this
area as well.  In both areas, risk should peak through late
afternoon/early evening, before diminishing.

...Great Basin...
The aforementioned short-wave trough crossing this region will
likely support widely scattered thunderstorm development from Idaho
southward to southern Nevada/northwestern Arizona.  While a locally
damaging gust or two cannot be ruled out, coverage of stronger
storms does not warrant MRGL risk inclusion at this time.

..Goss/Squitieri.. 08/24/2022


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Source: SPC Aug 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html)