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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening,
centered on portions of central and southern Arizona, and also
central and northeastern North Dakota.

...North Dakota...
A couple of thunderstorm clusters -- including isolated/more intense
updrafts -- continue moving southward/southeastward across portions
of central and northeastern North Dakota.  With 1000 to 1500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE still indicated across portions of this area, ahead
of a southeastward-moving mid-level vort max crossing far
southwestern Manitoba, storms will likely persist for several hours.
 Enhanced flow aloft associated with the upper feature will continue
to support local storm organization -- and associated potential for
locally strong/damaging wind gusts and hail -- for a couple more
hours, before storms diurnally weaken.

...Arizona...
Storms have diminished from roughly the Phoenix area eastward along
the Rim, with the stronger convection now moving off the Rim
northwest of Phoenix.  Meanwhile, a few storms are developing
farther south, toward the Mexico/Arizona border.  Overall, risk for
damaging winds appears likely to remain limited to locally/briefly
more intense updrafts, though slightly greater potential may linger
this evening across western Arizona as the aforementioned/stronger
cluster continues moving southwestward across the lower deserts.

..Goss.. 08/24/2022