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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVENING...CENTERED ON PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...NORTH
DAKOTA...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening,
centered on portions of Arizona, North Dakota, and southern New
England.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. 
Reduced probabilities over southeast NY based on recent
radar/satellite data favoring the stronger storm activity remaining
east of the area.  Reference Mesoscale Convective Discussion #1714
for the latest short-term details.

..Smith.. 08/23/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/

...Lower CO Valley to south-central AZ...
Full insolation this morning in conjunction with steep mid-level
lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will yield a moderately unstable air mass
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg south of the Mogollon Rim by late
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off the
Rim and drift to the south-southwest within a belt of 10-15 kt
500-600 mb flow. Localized severe gusts will be possible as
convection spreads into the lower deserts including the greater
Phoenix metro area. The lack of stronger shear should limit
potential for a more organized severe wind event. 

...Central/northern ND...
16Z surface analysis placed a couple of 1013-mb lows near the MT/ND
border and the SK/MB/ND border along a weak quasi-stationary front.
A minor mid-level vort max attendant to the latter wave should drift
southeast, aiding in scattered thunderstorm development later this
afternoon across northern to central ND. A co*pact belt of enhanced
upper-level flow may be adequate for a couple stronger cells given
moderate mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z Bismarck sounding.
These cells will be capable of marginally severe hail and localized
strong to marginally severe gusts.

...Southern New England...
Scattered thunderstorms are underway across the Hudson Valley
downstream of a mid-level trough centered on the Upper St. Lawrence
Valley, with more isolated activity farther south. Boundary-layer
heating has been more robust across the Tri-State area in the NYC
vicinity, with stratus still holding across most of MA/RI. This
should result in a confined corridor having a modest co*bination of
buoyancy and mid-level flow over southern New England. In this area,
a few wet microbursts capable of locally damaging winds are possible
through the rest of the afternoon.