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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Arizona,
the northern Rockies and northern Plains, and parts of New England
on Tuesday, but the organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears
relatively low at this time.

...Arizona...
Substantial convective overturning occurred across parts of AZ and
adjacent portions of southern CA/NV on Sunday. This may tend to
suppress convection somewhat on D1/Monday, which in turn may allow
for more substantial recovery by D2/Tuesday. If this scenario
occurs, then some threat for strong/locally severe wind gusts (and
perhaps some hail across higher elevations) may materialize on
Tuesday along the Mogollon Rim into portions of the lower deserts.
Severe probabilities may need to be added sometime during the Day 1
outlook cycle, depending on shorter-term trends regarding
destabilization and the strength of midlevel steering flow. 

...Northern Rockies/Great Plains...
A few strong storms will be possible Tuesday across parts of the
northern Rockies, near and east of a midlevel low moving slowly from
southern BC into eastern WA and northern ID. With only modest
instability and generally weak deep-layer shear, the severe threat
still appears too low to include probabilities. 

Farther east into the northern Great Plains, isolated to widely
scattered storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening,
as a midlevel shortwave trough moves eastward and interacts with a
weak surface boundary. Moderate instability could support some
stronger updrafts, but rather weak deep-layer flow/shear may limit
the threat for organized severe storms. 

...New England...
A weakening mid/upper-level low and associated trough are forecast
to move across New England on Tuesday. Modestly enhanced midlevel
southwesterly flow could support some occasional storm organization
as convection redevelops during the afternoon, though weak midlevel
lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity to some extent. Any
severe threat will likely be dependent on the extent of diurnal
heating and destabilization, which remains uncertain at this time
due to the potential for widespread early-day cloudiness.

..Dean.. 08/22/2022