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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO
LOUISIANA/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
central/east Texas to Louisiana/southwest Mississippi, with
additional locally severe storms possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states and Carolinas.

...Central/east Texas Louisiana/southern Mississippi...
Widespread convection/long-duration rainfall continues to occur
across much of north Texas toward southern Arkansas/northern
Louisiana, with this convection continuing to reinforce a
west/east-oriented baroclinic zone. Cloud breaks on the southern
periphery of this convection and along/south of the effective front
will contribute to moderate destabilization across parts of
central/east Texas into Louisiana/southwest Mississippi this
afternoon.

A weak frontal wave may develop over eastern Texas during the
afternoon, with a minor cold-frontal push to its west. This may
focus a band of new storm development across central Texas and the
Hill Country. Given moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, a
few stronger, southeastward-moving storms may evolve, with
strong/gusty winds possible.  

To the east of the frontal wave, an afternoon increase in storms
near the pseudo-warm front may occur, with some stronger/locally
severe storms possible. Strong/gusty winds aside, a modest
veering/strengthening of low-level to mid-level winds may contribute
to a wind profile sufficient for weak low-level rotation. A brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

Storms should peak in intensity through late afternoon/early
evening, with any lingering severe risk likely to wane through
mid-evening.

...Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
The upper low over the central/northern Appalachians will continue
to shift slowly east-northeastward today, with scattered
thunderstorms beco*ing increasingly co*mon into the afternoon within
a broad/moist warm sector. Much of this development will be focused
near/east of the Blue Ridge and in vicinity of a lee trough ahead of
the eastward-moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak
and insolation will be tempered by pre-existing clouds in some
areas. Nevertheless, diurnal heating and a steepening of low-level
lapse rates will likely yield a few corridors of some stronger and
perhaps locally severe storms this afternoon, especially across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Isolated wind damage may occur.

...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley...
While a couple of stronger storms could materialize mainly along the
Mogollon Rim late this afternoon/early, the overall convective
potential across the region should be less across the region in the
wake of last night's MCS.

...Idaho/far western Montana...
Forcing for ascent related to a northeastward-shifting upper trough
over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia will influence
increasing (mostly dry) thunderstorms across the region into the
peak diurnal heating cycle. Warm/well-mixed boundary layers and a
modest strengthening of mid-level westerlies could result in some
stronger wind gusts, although the potential for organized severe
storms is currently expected to remain low. See the Day 1 Fire
Outlook for additional details.

..Guyer/Edwards.. 08/22/2022