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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread thunderstorms -- with a few locally strong storms capable
of producing gusty winds -- will be possible today from central
Texas across parts of Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to remain across the eastern
U.S. today, while ridging remains over most of the West.  An
exception will be over the Pacific Northwest region, where a weak
trough/low will drift into the area.

At the surface, a weak front arcing from the East Coast States,
across the Gulf Coast states, and into Texas will focus convection
through the period.

...Central Texas eastward to southwestern Mississippi/southeastern
Louisiana...
Widespread convection -- ongoing at the start of the period along
the northern periphery of the risk area -- will increase into the
afternoon, as the airmass destabilizes near and south of the
quasi-stationary baroclinic zone.

A weak frontal wave is forecast to develop over eastern Texas during
the afternoon, with a minor cold-frontal push to its west.  This may
focus a band of new storm development across central Texas and the
Hill Country.  Given moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow, a
few stronger, southeastward moving storms may evolve, with gusty
winds possible -- particularly if some upscale/linear growth can
occur.  Risk appears sufficient to warrant MRGL/5% wind risk.  

To the east of the low, an afternoon increase in storms near the
pseudo-warm front may occur, with a stronger storm or two possibly
capable of gusty winds.  In addition, modest low-level veering of
the winds with height may contribute to a wind profile sufficient
for weak low-level rotation, and thus a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out.

Storms should peak in intensity through late afternoon/early
evening, with any lingering severe risk likely to wane through mid
evening.

..Goss/Jirak.. 08/22/2022