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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A strong thunderstorm or two is possible across the northern Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern across the CONUS Tuesday morning is forecast to be
characterized by generally modest flow and several relatively weak
shortwave troughs. A slow-moving shortwave trough over the Lower MS
Valley will contribute to numerous thunderstorms from east TX to the
central Gulf Coast. Another shortwave trough is expected to move
through the Northeast, with scattered thunderstorm development
anticipated as it does. Weak vertical shear and modest buoyancy will
limit the severe potential.

Farther west, an upper ridge will likely be centered over central CA
early Tuesday, before then drifting eastward/northeastward into more
of the southern Great Basin. As it does, a co*pact shortwave trough
is forecast to move into northern CA and a closed low is forecast to
drift southeast out of southern British Columbia.

...Northern Rockies into the northern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected over the northern Rockies in the vicinity
of the closed low mentioned in synopsis. Favorable low/mid-level
moisture will support moderate buoyancy, despite somewhat limited
heating. Decent directional shear will be in place, with low-level
easterly flow veering to westerly in the mid-levels. However,
westerly flow will be modest, with effective bulk shear remaining
below 30 kt. This should limit overall severe thunderstorm coverage
to less than 5%.

Afternoon thunderstorms are also expected across the northern
Plains, initiated as co*pact shortwave trough moves into ND. As with
areas farther west, favorable directional shear will be in place,
but weak mid-level flow will keep bulk shear values modest. A strong
storm or two is possible, but the limited vertical shear should
temper the overall severe coverage.

..Mosier.. 08/22/2022