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Mesoscale Discussion 1709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern Utah...northwestern
Arizona...and southern Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212221Z - 220045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms have developed over the
high terrain of southwestern Utah.  These storms are expected to
persist and/or help initiate additional storms as they
move/propagate south-southwestward over the next several hours. 
These storms will pose a threat of severe winds, but the threat is
expected to remain too isolated to necessitate watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated at the base of a shortwave
trough rotating through the region. Strong heating in a relatively
moist environment (>60 F dewpoints) has resulted in moderate
instability (>1500 J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of these storms across the
Colorado River Valley.  While deep-layer shear is rather weak across
the region, low-level shear is around 20 knots (veering from
south-southwesterly at the surface to northwesterly at ~2 km AGL per
local VWPs), which may help promote the development of thunderstorm
clusters.  Thus, severe wind is expected to be the primary threat as
these storms/clusters move into hot, well-mixed boundary layers to
the south-southwest over the next several hours (through ~03 UTC).

..Jirak/Thompson.. 08/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON   35611517 36541565 37261562 37451455 37481386 37461300
            37431217 37221181 36401225 35531279 35061299 34571356
            34561433 35071480 35611517